Posted on 29 January, 2012 filed under economic commentary
Weekly Economic Commentary January 29, 2012
Markets
With China closed for the New Year, stock markets continued a gradual decline (especially in Europe) which the State of the Union address by Obama and some moderately positive news from Europe (e.g. IFO & PMI) did not stem. US GDP data failed to boost markets while poor show in Europe’s corporate earnings also added to the worries. Regionally, most markets were up - with Egypt riding high on political optimism; volumes in DFM for the week were the highest since mid-June 2011; Saudi markets closed at a 6-month high yesterday. The dollar fell last week as the Greek debt deal dragged on, and led to a rise in gold prices to a 7-week high. Oil prices were up after the announcement of Europe's decision to ban oil imports from Iran, but trimmed gains after the US GDP data were released; IMF meanwhile warned that crude prices could rise by almost 30% if Iran halts its oil exports.
Posted on 22 January, 2012 filed under economic commentary
Weekly Economic Commentary January 22, 2012
Markets
Stock markets reacted positively to China's growth data with ripples around the rest of the world, but after some directionless sessions the week ended on a softer tone in Europe and the US. European spreads came down somewhat but Portugal's 10yr yield reached 13.81%. Among regional markets, ADX fell to a five month low last week, while Saudi Arabian shares gained the most in more than five weeks yesterday, on strong Q4 corporate earnings. Euro fell from a two-week high against the dollar on Friday while emerging market currencies had a much favourable week. Oil prices dropped in spite of the tensions in Iran, on expectations of lower demand and ahead of the outcome of the Greek deal. Gold prices were up 1.7% compared to a week ago, though prices eased on Friday.
Posted on 15 January, 2012 filed under economic commentary
Weekly Economic Commentary January 15, 2012
Markets
Stock markets were generally stable awaiting some news from the usual spate of meetings and "summits" among EU leaders and institutions. The seemingly softer German stance on fiscal discipline lifted European bourses and sovereign spreads, before another round of sovereign downgrades in Europe delivered a blow. Asia’s sentiment was helped by anticipation of a looser monetary stance in China. Regional markets were down, except Egypt which gained largely from Building & Construction and Property sectors. The euro fell further after the recent set of sovereign downgrades in the Eurozone. Oil prices, which rose on Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, dropped after EU downgrades brought attention back to the sovereign debt crisis. Gold prices posted gains from last week – but slipped on Fri, after recording a one-month high on Thursday.
Posted on 8 January, 2012 filed under economic commentary
Weekly Economic Commentary January 08, 2012
Markets
Stock markets started the year on a strong note, but then momentum faded for lack of a catalyst. Even the strong US labour data failed to cheer markets, which continue to remain depressed given the distressed Eurozone. Regional markets were mixed: low volumes prevailed even as Qatar hit an 11-month high (at close on Tues) and Saudi markets closed at the highest since Aug 1st yesterday. The dollar hit a 16-month high against the euro; gold recorded its biggest weekly gain in five weeks and Iran tensions drove up oil prices.
Posted on 2 January, 2012 filed under economic commentary
Weekly Economic Commentary January 02, 2012
Markets
Global Stock markets ended the year on a low note - posting their first annual loss since 2008, with emerging markets also closing lower: MSCI’s Asia Pacific Index declined almost 18% in 2011, after closing on a slightly positive note in the last week. Regional markets were hit by lower volumes and liquidity towards the end of the year, with little to cheer given the still ongoing regional turmoil. The euro hit a historic 10-year low against the yen and recorded a 15-month low against the dollar, also closing as the worst performing currency in the year 2011, while the Renminbi was the best performing currency. Commodities had a relatively better year with gold playing its role as a safe haven asset alongside the US Treasuries and the yen.
Posted on 2 February, 2011 filed under economic commentary
DIFC Weekly Economic Commentary January 30, 2011
Markets
A mixed week for markets: a few disappointing Q4 earnings (e.g. Microsoft, Amazon) led to the largest one day-fall since Aug '10 in the US while Asian markets were boosted by strong Q4 results, except for India where markets were lower on the policy rate hike. Regional markets were mostly down on fears of contagion from Egypt's political and security turmoil across the MENA region. Optimism over the easing debt crisis in Eurozone has boosted the euro. The safe haven demand for the dollar and yen are back, and oil is near the $100 mark.